Sunday, February 3, 2013

Super Bowl Preview

To Preview this year's Super Bowl I decided to run a simulation using Whatif Sports to determine who the likely winner of today's game will be. I ran two sets of simulation (sets being a loose word considering the one was just one game). The first was 10 games to average out some statistics so we can figure out what to expect.
Simulation Summary
Teams
The 49ers won 6 of the 10 games and once ended in a draw.
The Niners averaged 20.3 points a game with a high of 43 and a low of 10.
The Ravens struggled a bit on offense with only 16.3 points a game. Their lowest was 6 and their highest was 23.
The largest margin of victory was 31 in a Niners 43-12 win.
The Ravens largest margin of victory was 6 points and the closest game was a 17-15 win by the Niners.

The Ravens averaged 317.6 yards per game including a monster 428 yard game.
The Niners offense did not do as well only averaging 288.9 yards.
Passing

Joe Flacco averaged 201.7 yards per simulation including one game with 249 and one with 103. Flacco has averaged .625 interceptions a game during the regular season but that rate increased to .8 during the simulation. He also averaged .8 TDs per game.
Colin Kaepernick averaged a measly 124.3 yards per game compared to his 139 throughout out the season. While he averaged 31 rush yards per game throughout the season he only averaged 8.8 during the simulation. He had a high of 34 in one game. Kaepernick struggled scoring only averaging .8 TDs a game.
Receiving
'Greatest Receiver of All Time" Randy Moss only averaged 1.8 catches a game.
The Ravens averaged 317.6 yards per game including a monster 428 yard game.
The Niners offense did not do as well only averaging 288.9 yards.
Alex Smith made two appearances during the simulation.
Michael Crabtree of the 49ers averged 68.1 Receiving yards per game with a high of 137.
Anquan Boldin averaged 50.2 yards per game.
TE Vernon Davis of the 49ers averaged 15 receiving yards and even had two games where he failed to receive a catch.
Rushing
Ray Rice led a strong running Ravens team averaging 76.7 yards a game. His best performance was a 146 yard game.
The Niners had a two-headed rushing attack with Frank Gore and LaMichael James. Gore averaged 81.8 yards per game while James averaged 48.8.
Defense
Patrick Willis of the Niners averaged 7.2 tackles a game.
Ray Lewis must have ran out of deer antler spray as he only averaged 1.1 tackles.
Special Teams
David Akers had a 69FG% during the regular season well below his 80%. During the simulation he was a very poor 65%.

The Link to the Final Simulation is here 


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