Rule Number 5

Rule Number 5


The recent trade that sent Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers made me think about his career.  The most significant effect he had on baseball didn't happen on the field, it made the Rule 5 draft relevant.  Shane Victorino shouldn't be remembered for his clutch hits or his diving plays.  He shouldn't be remembered for pointing at his head and then his midsection in game three of the 2008 NLCS.  Shane Victorino is, and always should be, the face of the Rule 5 draft.

The Rule 5 Draft states that a player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not on the teams 40 man roster AND:

– were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; OR:

– were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Victorino with the Jacksonville Suns

Victorino was drafted in the 1999 Rule 4 Draft (that's the technical term for the actual amateur draft) by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of high school at the age of 19.  Therefore, he had to wait four years before he was eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Four years later, in the winter of 2002, Victorino was selected by the San Diego Padres via Rule 5.  Once selected, the player must spend the entirety of the next season in the Major Leagues or they can be offered back to the team that they were taken from.  The Padres used him sparingly, and with little success, in the first month of the season and they offered him back to the Dodgers on May 28th.  He languished in the Dodgers minor league system, never getting higher than AA.  In 2004 the Phillies decided to take him in the Rule 5 draft once again.  Again he sputtered when given his shot in the bigs and he was promptly offered back to the Dodgers, who declined       to take him back.                     .                        

Game 3 of the 2008 NLCS

Finally Victorino started living up to the expectations.  He hit .310 at AAA for the Phillies and was not only selected to the International League All-Star team, but he was selected as the MVP of the IL as well.  He was named to the 2nd team all-minor league team by Baseball America and was awarded the Phillies minor league player of the year award.  He got called up to the Phillies in September of 2004 and never looked back.  He would take over right field for Bobby Abreu in 2006 and took over centerfield for Aaron Rowand in 2007.  Shane Victorino is not the only success story, Jose Bautista, Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, and Jayson Werth were also Rule 5 studs.  

Rule 5 is a great way for players to get a chance that they never would have with another team.  Victorino may never have gotten called up to play for the Dodgers and baseball would have been poorer for it.  Certainly there is some risk with selecting a player in the Rule 5 draft, but with names like these coming from the draft there is also great reward.  

NL East Fire Sale

NL East Fire Sales

Zach Cox

 Both the Phillies(45-57) and Marlins (47-55) find themselves more than 10 games out of the wildcard and have decided to call it quits at the trade deadline. Both teams were projected to finish towards the top of the NL East but both teams have fallen short. The Marlins participated in their third fire sale in the 20 years after big free agent grabs Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle. Their first move was sending Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to the Tigers in exchange for pitching super prospect Jacob Turner and solid prospect C Robert Brantly. Shortly following that was the deal that sent Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate to the Dodgers for the #2 prospect in the Dodger's system P Nate Eovaldi and throw in prospect Scott McGough. On trade deadline day the Marlins worked out a trades with both the Pirates and the Cardinals. The Marlins sent relief pitcher Edward Mujica(0-3, 4.38 ERA, 2 SV, 36 H) to the Cardinals for 3B prospect Zach Cox who is hitting .254 at the AAA level this year. Cox is 23 years old and probably only a year or two away from the majors. I feel that the Marlins are the winners in this trade because middle relievers are not always consistent from year to year and Mujica isn't anything special this year. In a year when all is lost a veteran reliever does nothing and Cox should be able to help the Marlins for years to come.

Gaby Sanchez

  In the deal with the Pirates the Marlins sent off  one time all star 1B Gaby Sanchez and P Kyle Kaminska in exchange for the Pirates Outfielder Gorkys Hernandez. Kaminska seems to be just thrown in and most likely won't make a huge impact in the Pirates future as they are already stocked with young arms. Gaby Sanchez will replace Casey McGehee who the Pirates sent to the Yankees. Hernandez struggled with the big club this year and is doing okay in AAA after an above average year at AAA last year. He will most likely start off in the majors for the Marlins as Giancarlo "Don't Call Me Mike" Stanton is out for the season and Logan Morrison also on the DL.

Tommy Joseph

  The Phillies seem to have ended their era as kings of the NL East today by sending away their two best outfielders. Hunter Pence was traded to the Giants for OF Nate Schierholtz and catching prospect Tommy Joseph. Pence for Schierholtz straight up would be a great trade for the Giants and even with throwing Joseph in there it still is. The Giants have gotten themselves an elite right fielder that will help them beat out the Dodgers who have also been busy with deal. Tommy Joseph is the best catcher in the Giant's organization and #3 overall. The Giants will not be hurt too much by this because they already have Buster Posey and Andrew Susac is right behind Joseph in the Giant's system. With Carlos Ruiz aging the Phillies made a smart move by picking up a young catcher.
  Not to be outdone by the Giants, the Dodgers made a move of their own to pick up a solid outfielder. By giving up P Josh Lindblom and P Ethan Martin, they received Shane Victorino from the Phillies. Victorino is a career .277 hitter with a .776 OPS and should be expected to take over the starting left fielder role from Bobby Abreu. Abreu has slightly better numbers than Victorino this year but Victorino's speed and defense outweighs the older Abreu. Edit: Dodgers Designate Abreu for assignment.  Worse case scenario for Victorino is 4th outfielder but with plenty of playing time as Ethier and Kemp aren't the most durable players. The Dodgers gave up a package that is as valuable to them as Victorino but it is not great for the Phillies. Victorino means more to the Phillies than the Dodgers and they didn't get many prospects for him. Martin is at best a 3rd tier prospect while Lindblom is the#7 prospect in the Dodger's system. Lindblom has spent the whole 2012 season in the majors with 3.02 ERA in 47.2 innings.

Josh Lindblom

  The Phillies moved John Mayberry to starting center fielder status as a result of the trade as well as Domonic Brown. Mayberry will just be a placeholder in the organization as he is not young enough to be part of the franchises great next wave. The Phillies will most likely play out the rest of most of their contracts and then their prospects will be ready to make a run. The Marlins are in the same situation except that their players with heavy contracts have more years left and aren't quite as old. If the Marlins want to go back to rebuilding mode Reyes, Bell, and Buehrle will want to get out of Miami.

Reaction to Ichiro and Hanley Trades

  As I assume many of you may know by now the Marlins have begun there franchise tradition of fire selling. They have already traded away Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and Omar Infante, and there has been rumors that they are also willing to trade Heath Bell. The other big trade this past week has been the Seattle Mariners sending longtime face of the franchise Ichiro to the Yankees. Earlier this week Hawks Report posted about possible trades and while neither of these trades were proposed by us, we did assume the Yankees would get an outfielder and the Marlins would try to get rid of some contracts. While both the Hanley and Ichiro trades seem one sided now, I wanted to take a deeper look into what each team was getting and what they were giving up. I took a look from each team's perspective:

Miami Marlins

Nate Eovaldi

  Both trades the Marlins made just show that they are about to start another Fire Sale. The executives know that they just aren't going to win this year and with the trades they are making they don't plan on winning for a couple of years. Hanley was considered the face of the franchise after winning both a rookie of the year and a batting title but with the acquisition of Jose Reyes over the off-season pushing Hanley to third, he has not been on good terms with the franchise. He was due 31.5 million dollars over the next two years so the cash strapped Marlins made a good move by dealing him. LHP Randy Choate was also sent to the Dodgers in the deal. In return they received pitching prospects Scott McGough and Nate Eovaldi. Eovaldi was the #2 prospect in the Dodgers system according to minorleagueball.com and should be able to contribute in the top of the Marlins rotation for years to come. McGough was drafted out of the University of Oregon last year and was not considered one of the Dodgers top prospects but might make it as a reliever because there development and luck sometimes has a lot to do with luck.

Jaocb Tuner

  In the trade with the Tigers, the Marlins really took a "now" hit but there future actually looks much brighter afterwards. C Robert Brantly may never make it to the majors but there is just a good of a chance that he will, no one is expecting him to be a superstar but if things work out in his and the Marlins favor, he could be a quality major leaguer. The other prospect they received in that trade is Jacob Turner and he is considered to be a no doubt ace. He is only 21 years old and although is has a major league ERA of over 8, his minor league ERA has been just over 3.
  Marlins were able to dump the Contracts of Ramirez (2 years/$31.5 mil overall) and Infante($4 mil). Sanchez is due to become a free agent at the end of the season so the Marlins did the right thing by trying to get some prospects out of him. If the Marlins are going to start a fire-sale, I hope they go full blast, I'd like to see Josh Johnson who is about to make $13.75 million next year (while eligible fro arbitration at the end) go as he needs to be put in a situation where he can win. Heath Bell has to go as he was just a dumb signing and I am sure he can help out somewhere. Jose Reyes and his remaining 5 years $96 million need to be sent elsewhere. Johnson would make a good fit in Toronto who is trying to make a push for the playoffs while having the #1 rated farm system allowing them to make moves. Reyes would fit in at almost any playoff contender but I feel the Braves would be the best fit considering their shortstop problems. Every team in the majors needs a relief pitcher so Bell could find a home anywhere, the only problem is that he $18 mil over the next 2 years with a games finished option for 2015.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Randy Choate

  With the Dodgers two games out of the NL West and one game out of the Wild Card, it makes perfect sense to why they would try to improve their team. Although Hanley has not been having the best year of his career, he will surely be an offensive improvement over .196 hitting Juan Uribe at third.  The Dodgers will lose their #5 starter Nate Eovaldi but that is a hole they should be able to fill and in the long stretch relief pitching is very important and Randy Choate should be able to help out. According to mlb.com, the Dodgers are likely to start Stephen Fife, a 25 year old who had an impressive outing against the Phillies this year, Mattling has said that the pitcher will come from within the organization and it will not be Jamey Wright. McGough is a non-prospect and will not figure into much.

Detroit Tigers

Omar Infante

  Boy, the Tigers must be trying to win it all this year. They splurged for 1B Prince Fielder in the off season and are pretty much renting Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante. Sure Infante has next season under his contract so they will be getting 1.5 years out of him instead of .5. The Tigers are currently tied for the division lead but would be half a game out of the two wildcard spots. The addition of Sanchez makes the Tigers rotation a force to be reckoned with, Sanchez and his 3.94 ERA will be one of the best #5 starters in the league. Omar Infante is hitting .284 this season and will be a huge upgrade from Ramon Santiago who is hitting .216. The Tigers do give up a lot though as their #1 pitching prospect is now in Florida but if they are able to re-sign Sanchez they aren't going to have to worry about pitching for awhile. Rob Brantly, is not a sure thing but giving him up could not have been easy either.

Seattle Mariners

D.J. Mitchell 

  This is a weird trade because the Mariners aren't giving up much (Ichiro was only hitting .261) but they aren't really getting anything. On the other hand, the Yankees could revive Ichiro and get a lot out of him while not really being hurt at all. The Mariners are paying most of Ichiro's contract so they aren't exactly getting out of that. The one thing they get is a culture change, this is no longer the Seattle Ichiro's and they have a new target to build around, Felix Hernandez. RHP D.J. Mitchell has not had success at either the Major league or AAA level this year so if the Mariners get something out of him this year, it will be a surprise. He is 25 so unless he is a late bloomer, he has very little upside left but with how bad the Mariners are, I'm sure he will have a spot in the majors. RHP Danny Farquhar has been on waivers twice this season and probably won't pitch for the Yankees until September call ups if he ever does. He is most famous for having a name that is similar to the king from Shrek, don't expect anything out of him.

New York Yankees 

Dewayne Wise had to be
designated for assignment
because of Ichiro

  The Yankees give up two non-prospects for a guy that has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball history while only having to pay him $2.5 mil. Sounds like a sure fire winner for them right? Possibly... Ichiro just hasn't been himself this year and if things continue to go down for him, they gave up two guys that might fix things up and become contributors. Everyone knew that the Yankees were going to get an outfielder (Hawks Report suggested Justin Upton, younger, more power, more upside), but no one really expected Ichiro. It shouldn't be that surprising because the Yankees love veteran players and very rarely take chances on young players and prefer prime to past prime players that they can get from other teams. Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, and Brett Gardner are the only position players on the Yankees that are home grown. They Yankees were forced to designate Dewayne Wise for assignment, he has been used for defensive substitutions this year and is most famous for making the catch to save Mark Buehrle's perfect game.

No one knows which teams will turn out to be the winners and losers of these trades. It is safe to say that the Yankees will make the playoffs and they could have done it without Ichiro. The Dodgers and Tigers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Mariners and Marlins will continue to try to win 5 years from now.