Rule Number 5

Rule Number 5


The recent trade that sent Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers made me think about his career.  The most significant effect he had on baseball didn't happen on the field, it made the Rule 5 draft relevant.  Shane Victorino shouldn't be remembered for his clutch hits or his diving plays.  He shouldn't be remembered for pointing at his head and then his midsection in game three of the 2008 NLCS.  Shane Victorino is, and always should be, the face of the Rule 5 draft.

The Rule 5 Draft states that a player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not on the teams 40 man roster AND:

– were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; OR:

– were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Victorino with the Jacksonville Suns

Victorino was drafted in the 1999 Rule 4 Draft (that's the technical term for the actual amateur draft) by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of high school at the age of 19.  Therefore, he had to wait four years before he was eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Four years later, in the winter of 2002, Victorino was selected by the San Diego Padres via Rule 5.  Once selected, the player must spend the entirety of the next season in the Major Leagues or they can be offered back to the team that they were taken from.  The Padres used him sparingly, and with little success, in the first month of the season and they offered him back to the Dodgers on May 28th.  He languished in the Dodgers minor league system, never getting higher than AA.  In 2004 the Phillies decided to take him in the Rule 5 draft once again.  Again he sputtered when given his shot in the bigs and he was promptly offered back to the Dodgers, who declined       to take him back.                     .                        

Game 3 of the 2008 NLCS

Finally Victorino started living up to the expectations.  He hit .310 at AAA for the Phillies and was not only selected to the International League All-Star team, but he was selected as the MVP of the IL as well.  He was named to the 2nd team all-minor league team by Baseball America and was awarded the Phillies minor league player of the year award.  He got called up to the Phillies in September of 2004 and never looked back.  He would take over right field for Bobby Abreu in 2006 and took over centerfield for Aaron Rowand in 2007.  Shane Victorino is not the only success story, Jose Bautista, Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, and Jayson Werth were also Rule 5 studs.  

Rule 5 is a great way for players to get a chance that they never would have with another team.  Victorino may never have gotten called up to play for the Dodgers and baseball would have been poorer for it.  Certainly there is some risk with selecting a player in the Rule 5 draft, but with names like these coming from the draft there is also great reward.  

NL Central Deadline Madness

  Every team in the National League's Central Division played a part in a major trade in the month of August. The Reds, who are leading the division by 3 games made the fewest but the pick of Jonathan Broxton improves there already steady bullpen. The Pirates and Cardinals also made themselves buyers at the deadline while the Astros, Brewers, and Cubs were all willing to give up one of their top pitchers for prospects. Here is a team by team look at all the NL Central moves.

Cincinnati Reds

  Already 3 games in front of the second place Pirates and 7 games ahead of the 3rd place team in the wild card race, the Reds did not need to make a huge change but they didn't hurt themselves by getting Jonathan Broxton. Broxton, who was the closer at Kansas City will move to a middle relief role for the Reds as Aroldis Chapman is their current closer. Broxton and Chapman have both been pretty good in the closer rule as they have gone 23 for 27 and 22 for 26 in save opportunities respectively. The Reds already had a great bullpen with 6 pitchers having ERAs at either 3 or below   (team bullpen ERA of 2.61 is best in majors) and have completed 74% of their save opportunities (8th in majors). Donnie Joseph who became the Royal's #8 prospect after that trade has a chance to help the them right away as he is currently at AAA with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.409 WHIP. It is hard to imagine that those numbers represent a struggle at any level but at AA this year he had a .89 ERA with a .692 WHIP. J.C. Sulbaran was the other prospect in the trade and is 22 years old and at AA. He has an ERA of 4.04 and is a couple years away from the major leagues if he even ever gets there.

  This subtle trade will help save the arms of the Reds rotations as they now have another trusted arm in the bullpen. The most important move that can happen for the Reds is for Joey Votto to come off the DL.

Chicago Cubs

  The Cubbies find themselves 15.5 out of the wild card and 18.5 behind the the division leading Reds so it is safe to say that their season is over. They realized and quickly began to trade away for prospects. Catcher Geovany Soto and Pitcher Ryan Dempster (who everyone knew was going to be traded) were traded to the Rangers for Pitchers Jacob Brigham and Kyle Hendricks and 3B Christian Villanueva. To replace Soto, the Cubs called up Wellington Castillo up from the minors. Soto will serve as the Ranger's backup behind Matt Napoli while Dempster will become their #4 starter. Dempster's 2.25 ERA is well above average for an end of rotation starter. None of the prospects that the Rangers gave up  are in their top 20 but both Dartmouth grad Hendricks and Mexican Villanueva show some upside.

  In a trade with the Braves that the Cubs clearly won, they were able to pick up 21 year old Arodys Vizcaino who was the #40 prospect in baseball at the beginning of the year. As a rookie this year he has a 4.67 ERA and is 1-1. He may be struggling in his first year but he is expected to become a reliable starting pitcher. Along with Vizcaino they received pitcher Jaye Chapman who has a 3.52 ERA in AAA this year. To receive those players they gave up Pitcher Paul Malhom and OF Reed Johnson. Both are decent major leaguers that should add depth to the Braves team but they were not needed on the Cubs.

Houston Astros

  Their last season in the National League and it is not a successful one as they have lost twice as many games as they have won. Perennial sellers at the deadline the Astros have given up Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence in recent years, they were up to the same game this year and they picked up some solid prospects as they usually do but it is likely they won't take advantage of them. Earlier in the month they unloaded themselves of the weight that is Carlos Lee and in return by getting one of the Marlin's top prospects Matt Dominguez. They also got rid of veteran 3B Chris Johnson to the Diamondbacks in exchange for above average LF prospect Bobby Borchering. However their biggest trade was sending their ace Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates for LHP Colton Cain, CF Robbie Grossman, and LHP Rudy Owens. Owens had a 3.14 ERA with the Pirates AAA team but since moving to the Astros his ERA has sky rocketed above 7. At age 24 he is getting old for a prospect but he is on the verge of becoming a major league pitcher. Like Owens, the 21 year old Cain has struggled since changing organizations. Grossman was hitting .266 in AA for the Pirates and in 6 games with the Astros is hitting .292. He is a speed threat with average power.

Milwaukee Brewers

  The Brewers are 14.5 games outside first place so they did the smart thing by selling their biggest asset for prospects. In the off-season they lost their one of their best players, Prince Fielder, to free agency so many thought that they would not be able to contend this year. Ace Zack Greinke was sent to the Angels in return for some great prospects to replenish the farm system after they gave up so much to get Greinke. SS Jean Segura becomes their #1 overall prospect is hitting .297 this year at the AA level. The Brewers new #6 prospect is 23 year old Johnny Hellweg who is 5-10 at AA this year with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The third prospect they picked up in the trade is 23 year old Ariel Pena, after having a 2.99 ERA in AA with the Angels he struggled in his one start with the Brewer's AA team. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

  Currently 2.5 out of the division lead and holding onto a wild card spot the Pirates are in a position to make the playoffs but there is nothing wrong with bolstering their line up and rotation. The first big trade the Pirates made was getting SP Wandy Rodriguez from the Houston Astos(see Astros for prospects Pirates gave up). Wandy had a 3.79 ERA with a 1.270 WHIP in Houston but was mediocre in his first start in Pittsburgh giving up 3 runs in 6 innings. In a trade with the Marlins the Pirates were able to pick up one-time all star Gaby Sanchez and P Kyle Kaminska while giving up prospect OF Gorkys Hernandez. Kaminska and Hernandez are both 3rd level prospects but Sanchez could be a nice addition. After being an all star last year he has struggled this year only hitting .200 and will have to compete with Garrett Jones for playing time at first base as well as RF

 Travis Snider since Snider's acquisition moved Jones to 1B. Because of the Sanchez trade the Pirates were able to flip their old first baseman Casey McGehee to the Yankees for RP Chad Qualls. While losing McGehee hurts they found two replacements for him Qualls brings his 4.89 ERA to Pittsburgh. That might seem high but he has a respectable WHIP of 1.578. The Pirates weren't done though, as they traded for OF Travis Snider while giving the Blue Jays RHP Brad Lincoln. Lincoln was stellar in Pittsburgh this year with a 2.73 ERA mainly in relief appearances but the arrival of Wandy Rodriguez made him expendable. Snider has floated between the majors and the minors over the past couple of years but was off to a good start for the Blue Jays before being traded. He is only 24 and was hitting .325 in the minors this year.

St. Louis Cardinals 

  The Cardinals had probably the least exciting trade of the NL Central as they only made one and that was to pick up a mediocre relief pitcher in Edward Mujica while giving up way too much in the form of 3B Zack Cox who was rated as the #88 overall prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Mujica had a WHIP of 1.154 with Miami and has already thrown one perfect inning so far with the Cardinals. Cox was great at AA last year and mediocre at AAA this year but can be expected to help the Marlins in the future.

After reviewing all the trades Hawks Report believes that the division will end like this:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates; they did the most to improve their team and even if one trail fails they will have someone to pick up that slag

2. Cincinnati Reds (WC); The Pirates just themselves better than the Reds but they should be able to hold on for a wild card spot

3. St. Louis Cardinals; unless they can pull off the same magic as they did last year they won't be making the playoffs.

4. Milwaukee Brewers; building for the future

5. Chicago Cubs; same as Brewers

6. Houston Astros; moving to AL West next year where they will continue to dominate last place, building for never

5 Baseball Trades That Should Happen but Won't

  With the baseball non-waiver trade deadline approaching, teams are starting to sort themselves into two groups; buyers and sellers. This year very few teams are willing to give up on making the playoffs because of the added playoff spot, but it looks as if the Marlins, Mariners, Twins, Royals, Phillies, Cubs, Astros, Padres, and Rockies are out of it. Every other should look to improve their team as most division races are close, some of the trades proposed here might seem a little wacky, but both teams will benefit from them in the long run.

  1. Phillies send Cole Hamels (but only 2/3 of his contract) to BoSox for SS Jose Iglesias and C Blake Swihart
  For the first time in what seems like forever the Phillies are long shots to make the playoffs. There have been rumors that Hamels would be moved but no potential trades have been made public. The Red Sox are only 2 games out of the AL East which is quite an accomplishment considering they have the 19th best ERA in the Majors. Hamels would help bolster their rotation with his 3.07 ERA and 11-4 record. He also has the 12th best WHIP in the game at 1.09, the true measure of how effective a pitcher is. Hamels only has one year left on his contract and is set to make $15 million this year, the Phillies should cover at least 1/3 of the remaining money since the Red Sox need Hamels.

Jose Iglesias

  The Red Sox would be giving up two of their top 10 prospects but Jose Iglesias is the #2 SS in their system and Blake Swihart is their #2 catcher. Sure, both players could switch positions but the Red Sox are pretty set at both second and third so their isn't much room for Iglesias and Swihart is blocked by Ryan Lavarnway and Salty behind the plate and by Adrian Gonzalez at first. The 22 year old Iglesias is Major League ready at short stop and since the Phillies have a rapidly aging infield, they could try to move him to either third or second base. In 2012 so far he has hit .261 in 60 games at AAA and .333 in 10 games in the Majors. Swihart is a 20 year old catcher currently hitting .265 while slugging.393 at A, Carlos Ruiz is 33 years old and by the time Swihart is major league ready, Ruiz may be out of his prime.

  2. Marlins send 2B-OF Chris Coghlan and RHP Heath Bell and get C Hector Sanchez, RHP Heath Hembree, and LHP Mike Kickham
  Let's start off with what the Giants will be sending away in this deal, Catcher Hector Sanchez is only 23 years old and on their Major League roster, sounds like he is too good to give away unless you remember that the Giants also have Buster Posey on their team. Yes, Posey has gotten injured in the past but this is a high risk trade that could provide plenty of reward. The Giants also possess two other catchers in their farm system that could back up as well as current back up Eli Whiteside (who is a douche) who is filling in for the injured Sanchez. Hembree is currently in AAA for the Giants and has taken up the closer role. He has 13 saves in 32 appearances for the Fresno Grizzlies. His 5+ ERA might appear scary but opponents are only hitting .217 off of him. Mike Kickham is more of a long shot to make the major leagues since the Marlins are pretty solid in the rotation and Kickham isn't a top prospect but he could help in the bullpen one day. He has spent 2012 at the AA level and has been doing very well. He is 8-7 with a 2.71 ERA and at 23 seems to be soon ready for the Majors albeit with much upside.

Chris Coghlan

Hector Sanchez

  The Giants will be receiving two good players that have struggled recently but with a change of scenery their luck might change.  At 34 years of age, signing Heath Bell to a multi-year was very, very stupid. He has blown 6 saves for them this year but in the past he was an all-star. Sending him out west might be the best thing for him since he was successful with the Padres and maybe he is just a California type of guy. Chris Coghlan was the Rookie of the Year in 2009 but since then he has been sent down twice by the Marlins, now he is 27 and his career either needs to take off again or it might go down the drain. The Yankees could be another good possible fit for him but the New York pressure could get to him. He is very versatile and could fill in almost any where for the Giants. If this trade would go down, it could turn into nothing or it could win the Giants a World Series and revitalize the Marlins Franchise.

  3. Yankees Acquire RHP J.J. Putz and OF Justin Upton in exchange for cash(TBD), OF Mason Williams, and 3B Tyler Austin

Mason Williams

  What the Yankees get here is a flatout superstar in Justin Upton, he might not have been himself so far but he is still young (24) and has the potential to be great. The Diamondbacks are only 7 games out but have made it clear they went to get rid of Upton and they should also try to get something out of the 8.5 million they spent on him. Since the Yankees have lost both Brett Gardner and Mariano Rivera for the what looks like the rest of the season both their bullpen and outfield have held up well. This doesn't mean that they still can't upgrade. The Yankees are use to taking up old washed up players but this is a chance for them to get quality players at a quality age, Putz is 35 and at the tail end of his career but also the tail end of his contract while Upton still has a few years left on his deal. The Diamondbacks would need to find young talent to help replace Upton in the line up. Since the D-Backs already have plenty of pitching prospects (some are already in Majors) they don't need to receive a pitching prospect. Because the Yanks have money, they are loaded with prospects and even if they trade some away, they can always sign a free agent or go to one of their other prospects. Both Williams and Austin are at the tops of the Yankees system and Williams is 85 in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects. Austin will soon be able to replace Ryan Roberts at 3rd and is quite a hitter, never hitting below .300 at any stop in the minors. Mason provides an average bat with above average speed as well as some power. Both are only in High-A so they are a couple years away from the show.

  4. Braves give up prospects RHP Zeke Spruil and SS Tyler Pastornicky and Receive Shortstop Marwin Gonzalez and if they can LHP Wesley Wright
  Yes, everyone knows that the Braves have a stacked bullpen but why not try to make it better. Venters is currently hurt and someone other than O'Flaherty has to help get the ball in to Kimbrel's hands. The Braves have a gaping hole at shortstop that they have tried to plug with Paul Janish but that will probably not work out. Gonzalez is only 23 years old and hitting just under .300 in his first year of the majors. He does not produce many homers but he can hit the ball with power in the gap for doubles. Wright would only be used against lefties as righties are hitting over .300 against him but he has held righties down to .185 and has a 4 to 1 K to BB ration against them. The Braves need to win the World Series and everyone in baseball would be happy if they did. Chipper Jones is a no doubt Hall of Famer and this move could earn him a ring.

Marwin Gonzalez 

  The Braves would be giving up quite a bit in this deal though. Pastornicky has already been in the majors and has the ability to turn into a great player, it's just that Gonzalez is one year ahead of him and the Braves need Pastornicky to be one year ahead because of the Jones situation. He hit .252 in 161 Plate Appearances in the Majors this year while hitting .268 at the AAA level. Spruill is in his 4th season out of high school and still appears a while away from the bigs. The second round draft pick has a 4.18 ERA in AA this year while possessing a WHIP of 1.263. Maybe a change of scenery will help this young man out since he could make the Astros better.

5. Cubs send Ryan Dempster to St. Louis and Matt Garza to Baltimore while building for the future up the middle
  Let's first talk about the Ryan Dempster situation, the Cardinals, Nationals, and Braves have all been said to be interested in the pitcher. The Nationals do not need to improve their team what so ever, they would only hurt themselves by giving up prospects to get him. It is understood that in a year they have a chance to win a ring they would go all out, but they have a team that could win it already and if they get him and miss, their future might be in doubt. Same thing goes for the Braves, they have to ask themselves, does this really make us that much better. The answer for them is no and they need a shortstop more than another pitcher. Both St. Louis and Baltimore are in contention for the world series and by picking up another pitcher.

Dan Klein

  The Orioles would be giving up a lot in this proposed trade as they would be sending their #2 and #3 pitching prospects as well as their #1 OF prospect. Robert Bundy is the older brother of the O's top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy, so maybe moving out of the shadow of younger brother will be good for him. He will not be a top of the rotation pitcher but could have good effect coming of out of the bullpen or being at the end of the rotation. Dan Klein is 23 years old and has an ERA of 1.11 between AA and High A this year, the only problem is that he is constantly injured. If he can stay healthy, there is no reason why he can't be the future of the Cubs organization. The Outfielder they would be giving up is Glynn Davis, this kid can run and he has an average stick, he will boost their defense by covering a lot of ground but he is only in High A and a couple of years away from the Majors. Some might say that this is giving up way too much for Garza but this might be the only year that everything falls right in their season.

Mitch Harris

  The Cardinals wouldn't have to give up as much because Dempster has the ability to become a free agent after this season unlike Garza, who is still bound by arbitration. They send away RHP Mitch Harris, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, and C Cody Stanley. Mitch Harris is a pitcher that the Cardinals drafted in 2008 but since he attended the Naval Academy he has been busy fulfilling his service obligation and the Cubs could use him for PR since an appearance by him would potentially increase attendance. Rosenthal has a 2.78 ERA in AA this year and if he keeps it up, he could end up in the show soon, but the Cardinal's door is closing and Dempster could help them win now. Stanley is not as hot of a prospect as he is 23 and struggled offensively  in A since being called up from Rookie Ball. In 4 years in the minors he has thrown out 41% of base runners so he has more upside behind the plate than at it.

All these trades have the potential to help one team win the World Series this year and another win it 5 years ago. In baseball, some players become worthless to one team because of either better players at their position or they simply don't fit into the system. Some teams in this trade are obviously winners over the other. Prospects are never a sure thing so teams do take a risk by sending away their star, but when you suck you have to do something.  It is almost 99% sure that none of these trades will happen, but you never know what will happen at the trade deadline.