Rule Number 5

Rule Number 5


The recent trade that sent Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers made me think about his career.  The most significant effect he had on baseball didn't happen on the field, it made the Rule 5 draft relevant.  Shane Victorino shouldn't be remembered for his clutch hits or his diving plays.  He shouldn't be remembered for pointing at his head and then his midsection in game three of the 2008 NLCS.  Shane Victorino is, and always should be, the face of the Rule 5 draft.

The Rule 5 Draft states that a player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not on the teams 40 man roster AND:

– were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; OR:

– were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Victorino with the Jacksonville Suns

Victorino was drafted in the 1999 Rule 4 Draft (that's the technical term for the actual amateur draft) by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of high school at the age of 19.  Therefore, he had to wait four years before he was eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Four years later, in the winter of 2002, Victorino was selected by the San Diego Padres via Rule 5.  Once selected, the player must spend the entirety of the next season in the Major Leagues or they can be offered back to the team that they were taken from.  The Padres used him sparingly, and with little success, in the first month of the season and they offered him back to the Dodgers on May 28th.  He languished in the Dodgers minor league system, never getting higher than AA.  In 2004 the Phillies decided to take him in the Rule 5 draft once again.  Again he sputtered when given his shot in the bigs and he was promptly offered back to the Dodgers, who declined       to take him back.                     .                        

Game 3 of the 2008 NLCS

Finally Victorino started living up to the expectations.  He hit .310 at AAA for the Phillies and was not only selected to the International League All-Star team, but he was selected as the MVP of the IL as well.  He was named to the 2nd team all-minor league team by Baseball America and was awarded the Phillies minor league player of the year award.  He got called up to the Phillies in September of 2004 and never looked back.  He would take over right field for Bobby Abreu in 2006 and took over centerfield for Aaron Rowand in 2007.  Shane Victorino is not the only success story, Jose Bautista, Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, and Jayson Werth were also Rule 5 studs.  

Rule 5 is a great way for players to get a chance that they never would have with another team.  Victorino may never have gotten called up to play for the Dodgers and baseball would have been poorer for it.  Certainly there is some risk with selecting a player in the Rule 5 draft, but with names like these coming from the draft there is also great reward.  

NL Central Deadline Madness

  Every team in the National League's Central Division played a part in a major trade in the month of August. The Reds, who are leading the division by 3 games made the fewest but the pick of Jonathan Broxton improves there already steady bullpen. The Pirates and Cardinals also made themselves buyers at the deadline while the Astros, Brewers, and Cubs were all willing to give up one of their top pitchers for prospects. Here is a team by team look at all the NL Central moves.

Cincinnati Reds

  Already 3 games in front of the second place Pirates and 7 games ahead of the 3rd place team in the wild card race, the Reds did not need to make a huge change but they didn't hurt themselves by getting Jonathan Broxton. Broxton, who was the closer at Kansas City will move to a middle relief role for the Reds as Aroldis Chapman is their current closer. Broxton and Chapman have both been pretty good in the closer rule as they have gone 23 for 27 and 22 for 26 in save opportunities respectively. The Reds already had a great bullpen with 6 pitchers having ERAs at either 3 or below   (team bullpen ERA of 2.61 is best in majors) and have completed 74% of their save opportunities (8th in majors). Donnie Joseph who became the Royal's #8 prospect after that trade has a chance to help the them right away as he is currently at AAA with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.409 WHIP. It is hard to imagine that those numbers represent a struggle at any level but at AA this year he had a .89 ERA with a .692 WHIP. J.C. Sulbaran was the other prospect in the trade and is 22 years old and at AA. He has an ERA of 4.04 and is a couple years away from the major leagues if he even ever gets there.

  This subtle trade will help save the arms of the Reds rotations as they now have another trusted arm in the bullpen. The most important move that can happen for the Reds is for Joey Votto to come off the DL.

Chicago Cubs

  The Cubbies find themselves 15.5 out of the wild card and 18.5 behind the the division leading Reds so it is safe to say that their season is over. They realized and quickly began to trade away for prospects. Catcher Geovany Soto and Pitcher Ryan Dempster (who everyone knew was going to be traded) were traded to the Rangers for Pitchers Jacob Brigham and Kyle Hendricks and 3B Christian Villanueva. To replace Soto, the Cubs called up Wellington Castillo up from the minors. Soto will serve as the Ranger's backup behind Matt Napoli while Dempster will become their #4 starter. Dempster's 2.25 ERA is well above average for an end of rotation starter. None of the prospects that the Rangers gave up  are in their top 20 but both Dartmouth grad Hendricks and Mexican Villanueva show some upside.

  In a trade with the Braves that the Cubs clearly won, they were able to pick up 21 year old Arodys Vizcaino who was the #40 prospect in baseball at the beginning of the year. As a rookie this year he has a 4.67 ERA and is 1-1. He may be struggling in his first year but he is expected to become a reliable starting pitcher. Along with Vizcaino they received pitcher Jaye Chapman who has a 3.52 ERA in AAA this year. To receive those players they gave up Pitcher Paul Malhom and OF Reed Johnson. Both are decent major leaguers that should add depth to the Braves team but they were not needed on the Cubs.

Houston Astros

  Their last season in the National League and it is not a successful one as they have lost twice as many games as they have won. Perennial sellers at the deadline the Astros have given up Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence in recent years, they were up to the same game this year and they picked up some solid prospects as they usually do but it is likely they won't take advantage of them. Earlier in the month they unloaded themselves of the weight that is Carlos Lee and in return by getting one of the Marlin's top prospects Matt Dominguez. They also got rid of veteran 3B Chris Johnson to the Diamondbacks in exchange for above average LF prospect Bobby Borchering. However their biggest trade was sending their ace Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates for LHP Colton Cain, CF Robbie Grossman, and LHP Rudy Owens. Owens had a 3.14 ERA with the Pirates AAA team but since moving to the Astros his ERA has sky rocketed above 7. At age 24 he is getting old for a prospect but he is on the verge of becoming a major league pitcher. Like Owens, the 21 year old Cain has struggled since changing organizations. Grossman was hitting .266 in AA for the Pirates and in 6 games with the Astros is hitting .292. He is a speed threat with average power.

Milwaukee Brewers

  The Brewers are 14.5 games outside first place so they did the smart thing by selling their biggest asset for prospects. In the off-season they lost their one of their best players, Prince Fielder, to free agency so many thought that they would not be able to contend this year. Ace Zack Greinke was sent to the Angels in return for some great prospects to replenish the farm system after they gave up so much to get Greinke. SS Jean Segura becomes their #1 overall prospect is hitting .297 this year at the AA level. The Brewers new #6 prospect is 23 year old Johnny Hellweg who is 5-10 at AA this year with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The third prospect they picked up in the trade is 23 year old Ariel Pena, after having a 2.99 ERA in AA with the Angels he struggled in his one start with the Brewer's AA team. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

  Currently 2.5 out of the division lead and holding onto a wild card spot the Pirates are in a position to make the playoffs but there is nothing wrong with bolstering their line up and rotation. The first big trade the Pirates made was getting SP Wandy Rodriguez from the Houston Astos(see Astros for prospects Pirates gave up). Wandy had a 3.79 ERA with a 1.270 WHIP in Houston but was mediocre in his first start in Pittsburgh giving up 3 runs in 6 innings. In a trade with the Marlins the Pirates were able to pick up one-time all star Gaby Sanchez and P Kyle Kaminska while giving up prospect OF Gorkys Hernandez. Kaminska and Hernandez are both 3rd level prospects but Sanchez could be a nice addition. After being an all star last year he has struggled this year only hitting .200 and will have to compete with Garrett Jones for playing time at first base as well as RF

 Travis Snider since Snider's acquisition moved Jones to 1B. Because of the Sanchez trade the Pirates were able to flip their old first baseman Casey McGehee to the Yankees for RP Chad Qualls. While losing McGehee hurts they found two replacements for him Qualls brings his 4.89 ERA to Pittsburgh. That might seem high but he has a respectable WHIP of 1.578. The Pirates weren't done though, as they traded for OF Travis Snider while giving the Blue Jays RHP Brad Lincoln. Lincoln was stellar in Pittsburgh this year with a 2.73 ERA mainly in relief appearances but the arrival of Wandy Rodriguez made him expendable. Snider has floated between the majors and the minors over the past couple of years but was off to a good start for the Blue Jays before being traded. He is only 24 and was hitting .325 in the minors this year.

St. Louis Cardinals 

  The Cardinals had probably the least exciting trade of the NL Central as they only made one and that was to pick up a mediocre relief pitcher in Edward Mujica while giving up way too much in the form of 3B Zack Cox who was rated as the #88 overall prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Mujica had a WHIP of 1.154 with Miami and has already thrown one perfect inning so far with the Cardinals. Cox was great at AA last year and mediocre at AAA this year but can be expected to help the Marlins in the future.

After reviewing all the trades Hawks Report believes that the division will end like this:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates; they did the most to improve their team and even if one trail fails they will have someone to pick up that slag

2. Cincinnati Reds (WC); The Pirates just themselves better than the Reds but they should be able to hold on for a wild card spot

3. St. Louis Cardinals; unless they can pull off the same magic as they did last year they won't be making the playoffs.

4. Milwaukee Brewers; building for the future

5. Chicago Cubs; same as Brewers

6. Houston Astros; moving to AL West next year where they will continue to dominate last place, building for never

Keep the Kids in Mind

 Last night, the Cardinals-Brewers NLCS game started at 8:05 ET; a good time to start the game for the local fans as in central time it would be 7:05 ET. May I remind you though that the majority of baseball fans live on the east coast, and baseball needs to appeal to the younger audience as less and less kids are playing baseball each year. Most studies show that a teenager needs about 9 hours of sleep to be fully ready for the day. A game that starts at 8:05 ET would usually end at about 11, unless it is a Red Sox game and then it would between 12am and 1 am. Here are three ways to keep all of America happy for baseball.

  1. Start the Game Earlier
         The most obvious of the reasons, the earlier the games start the earlier they will end. Sunday night games are tough because you do don't want to have to compete with the 4pm football games, but there is always a night marquee game. This poses a question for MLB; pit a game against a typical 4 o' clock game or against the 8pm game that has been advertised for heavily for the past week. Personally, I would rather go up against two fan bases instead of a national audience.
        A 7 CT game starts at 5 o'clock west coast time, very early in the day, but starting the game at 4pm wouldn't make that much of a difference in viewership. I believe that baseball wouldn't lose viewers by starting earlier, but definetly loses them by starting the games so late. A 7pm start time on the east coast would end at 10, allowing the youth to watch the whole game. Last night, I made it to the top of the 4th inning, sure I was tired from the day, but I should be able to watch more than half the game.
    On a side note, in my opinion that game was lost for the Brewers in the first inning when Weeks
didn't pick Lucroy's throw on the stolen base attempt. After that, Pujols and Berkman get on then Holliday grounds out to end the inning.

2. Find Ways to Speed Up Play
 The game of baseball should not take three and a half hours to finish. A game should reasonably end within 2 and a half hours. The problem is that pitchers take 40 seconds in between pitches and the last 2 innings of a close game usually take an hour. Some may blame the slow pace of play on commercials between innings, but baseball is a sport that commercials fit in perfectly with the framework of the game. Pitchers need about a minute and a half to warm up, perfect for 2 or 3 commercials.
 The problem with the game is batters stepping out of the box for 10 seconds between pitches and pitchers taking 40 seconds to check the runners and take the sign. With no one on base, there should be about 10 seconds between each pitch, the pitcher has no need to shake off signs unless they are in Toronto and there are no runners on base for them to check on. When runners are on base, 20 seconds should be the goal for pitchers. This gives enough time for the catcher to run through the complex signal order to keep their signs from being stolen and for the pitcher to look at each runner and decide whether or not to pick off. People who say that baseball should come up with a game limiting pick offs don't realize that would just increase scoring by a bizarre number and make catchers with good arms almost useless.

 Another problem is that the catcher has no limit on the amount of times he is allowed to call time to talk to the pitcher. Baseball has a rule in place to limit coaching visits, one time an inning and the second time the pitcher must come out. I propose a rule that limits player called time outs to 10. This only covers players who do not have the ball in their hand. If a fielder decides to call time so they can send the ball back to the pitcher without worrying about players advancing bases, they should be allowed to do so as long as they do not create a conference on the mound. Everytime a catcher or a hitter calls time, that counts. This would cause players to think a lot more during the course of a game, is it worth it for a hitter to call time in the 2nd inning when their pitcher could use that during the 8th inning when the game is tied.

3. Expand the Strike Zone
  Since the 90s the major leauge strike zone has been almost wider than it is tall. Going from above the knees to the belt and about 4 inches off each side of the plate. I feel that they need to make the strike zone the width of the plate again, stop rewarding pitches that are thrown almost nowhere near the hittable zone.

If only they would call the right strike zone

The zone should also be expanded upwards to halfway up the chest. Right now umpires don't call anything above the belt a strike. Personally as a hitter I believe that the way outside pitch is harder to hit than a pitch up. Pitchers would no longer try to pitch around guys as they would be able to challenge them up, meaning less at bats that are 5 to 8 pitches. That may not sound like a lot but it could add up to 20 minutes by the end of the game.

 The truth is that baseball needs to start appealing to younger viewers and right now they are doing a terrible job. All baseball needs to do is move up start times, change the strike zone, and get players to play the game.