| Most wins; third most runs |
Yesterday we discussed what statistic has the biggest impact on a pitcher's ability to win and determined that the better a pitcher's ERA, the more wins that pitcher was likely to have. Today there is going to be a similar topic, what makes a team win. Today will focus on the position players while tomorrow will be pitching. The statistics that will be compared to wins today are Runs, Strikeouts, Stolen Bases, Batting Average, On Base Percentage, and two metrics from fangraphs.com that measure fielding and baserunning. The stats will be listed from greatest correlation to worst correlation.
1. Runs
Not much to be surprised by here, games are decided by runs so it's likely that the more you score, the more you win. What is a little surprising is that the Washington Nationals had the most wins in MLB last year, 98, but came in 10th in runs with 731. The Rangers, who led the majors with 808 runs won 93 games. The Terrible Houston Astros only won 55 games, worst in the league, and only had 583 runs, worst in the league.
2. On Base Percentage + Slugging
Hailed as the super stat among players OPS has a .49 correlation for team's wins. The Yankees were the league's most patient and powerful hitters with an OPS of .790 and won 95 games. The Rockies pitching was horrible and that prevented the team from having a good season despite their offenses .766 OPS which ranked them third in the league. The Nationals placed 8th in the league with an OPS of .750.
3. Fielding Metric
There is the saying that defense wins championships and it shows to be somewhat true as the World Series Giants had the 10th highest fielding measuring in at 13. The Braves, who lost in the Wild-Card showdown had a fielding metric of 58.6 and won 94 games on the season. The Red Sox, who only won 69 games, were a surprisingly strong fielding team (34.6).
4. On Base Percentage
Hailed as the wonder stat by the Moneyball generation (then replaced by OPS), OBP does a fine job predicting winners but falls just behind Fielding. The Cardinals and the Yankees were the top two teams and reached 88 and 95 wins respectively. The Athletics, who had 94 wins had an OBP of only .310, bad enough for 24th in the league. The Marineers, who had a league worst .296 OBP, had 75 wins.
5. Batting Average
The first recorded statistic for batters means a lot less than expected with a correlation of .268. The Cardinals had the highest batting average in the league and the Yanks placed second. The Tigers, who were the runner ups in the World Series, had the third highest batting average at .268. The Nationals were not that strong of a hitting team only coming in at #12.
6. Baserunning
Actually has almost no correlation at all coming in at .10. Strikeouts and Stolen Bases actually have a higher correlation rating but there are the opposite of what was expected. Strikeouts actually had a positive correlation while stolen bases had a negative. The Angels had the best Baserunning rating and finished with 89 wins, but on the other end of things the Nationals came in last and led the majors in wins.
7. Strike Outs
This actually shows that the more a team strikes out, the higher their chances of winning are, but ever so slightly. The Athletics led the majors with 1387 strikeouts but still had 94 wins. In second was the Astros who only had 55 wins. The team with the least amount of strikeouts, the Kansas City Royals who had 72 wins.
8. Stolen Bases
Alright, this actually has a stronger correlation than strike outs but it is the opposite correlation of what we want. Teams are better off stealing less because the more you steal, the likelier you are to get thrown out and lose a runner. The Brewers led the majors in with steals and had 83 wins while the Orioles were last with 58 steals but won 93 games.
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