Pitching and Winning

Best ERA- but didn't mean a championship

It is safe to say that both team's and and pitcher's need to do the same thing to win, and that is to prevent the other team from crossing home plate. That is why ERA has the biggest correlation between winning and a statistic for both individuals and a group. After we determined that runs were the most important thing in winning games, today we decide that runs against is just as important. Along with ERA the other stats measured today will be: saves, batting average against, WHIP, batting average on balls in play, Fielding Independent Pitching, and the ERAs of both the team's relievers and starters. All stats except for Saves naturally have a negative correlation due to their nature of lower is better, so the absolute value of those stats were taken while Saves had their normal correlation.

1. ERA correlation=.8125

Gonzalez

The Rays had the league's lowest ERA at 3.19 and had the 9th most wins with 90. The Washington Nationals, led by Gio Gonzalez and Steven Strasburg, had the second best ERA and led the majors with 98 wins. The World Series Champion Giants had a 3.68 ERA which is good enough for 7th on the list. Despite a 3.76 ERA, the Mariners were only able to win 75 games.

2. WHIP correlation=.803

Again similar to ERA, David Price and the Rays led the majors with a WHIP of 1.17 and the Nationals took second at 1.22. Felix Hernandez again got the Mariners in the top 6 despite their lackluster record. The Brewers were the only team with a WHIP above 1.3 to win more than 80 games.

3. Saves correlation= .77889

Not really surprise here as you can only get a save if you win the game. The Reds had the most saves in the majors (56) and Aroldis Chapman had 38 of them and they won 97 games. The Pirates had 45 saves (Joel Hanrahan having 36 of them) despite only winning 79 games. The Orioles finished second in saves as Jim Johnson got 51 of their 55 saves. The Angels won 89 games despite recording only 38 saves as they were a little bit of an outlier.

4. Starter ERA correlation= .71457

What a surprise here, again the Rays and the Dodgers take the top two spots. Clayton Kershaw led the majors in ERA and it helped the Dodgers get the third spot with a starter ERA of 3.41 and 86 wins. The Mets R.A. Dickey boosted them into the 11 spot but they only had 74 wins on the year. The Orioles, who are looking to have a pretty bad this year, made it far with bad starters sporting an ERA of 4.42 but won 93 games.

5. Batting Average Against Correlation=.704

So again the Rays, Nationals, and Dodgers take the top three spots with opponent batting averages below .235. The Rockies, who have been near the bottom of the list in almost every category are in dead last here with teams hitting .284 of their pitchers, which is .014 points higher than the second to last Twins. Not surprisingly, the Rockies only won 64 games.

6. Fielding Independent Pitching correlation=.684

Just wanted to show
 the Cuba Red

This statistic is used to determine the ERA of a pitcher if it wasn't for shoddy defense, or in the other direction great defense. The Rays and Nationals again take the top two spots but three and four look a little different this time. Adam Wainwright's FIP of 3.10 led the Cardinals to the 3 spot and Justin Verlander's 2.94 FIP put the Tigers in fourth. 

7. Reliever ERA correlation=.6525

Aroldis Chapman had the third  best ERA among reliever's last year (1.51) and it helps put the Reds on top of the list. The Braves took second with Craig Kimbrel and Eric O'Flaherty both finishing in the top 5. Fernando Rodney had a major league best .60 ERA for the Rays and the team had a 2.88 reliever ERA which was third in the league. The World Champion Giants had the 15th best bullpen but that was likely do to Brain Wilson missing most of the season. 

8. Batting Average on Balls in Play correlation=.48

Not a terrible correlation but not a good one. The Tigers were 27th in the league in BABIP and still had 81 wins and the Yanks won 95 despite finishing 19th. The Rays and Angels were first in the league with a .277 BABIP and the Athletics who won 94 games finished third witha .279 BABIP.

What makes Teams Win- Offense?

Most wins; third most runs

Yesterday we discussed what statistic has the biggest impact on a pitcher's ability to win and determined that the better a pitcher's ERA, the more wins that pitcher was likely to have. Today there is going to be a similar topic, what makes a team win. Today will focus on the position players while tomorrow will be pitching. The statistics that will be compared to wins today are Runs, Strikeouts, Stolen Bases, Batting Average, On Base Percentage, and two metrics from fangraphs.com that measure fielding and baserunning. The stats will be listed from greatest correlation to worst correlation.
1. Runs
Not much to be surprised by here, games are decided by runs so it's likely that the more you score, the more you win. What is a little surprising is that the Washington Nationals had the most wins in MLB last year, 98, but came in 10th in runs with 731. The Rangers, who led the majors with 808 runs won 93 games. The Terrible Houston Astros only won 55 games, worst in the league, and only had 583 runs, worst in the league.

2. On Base Percentage + Slugging
Hailed as the super stat among players OPS has a .49 correlation for team's wins. The Yankees were the league's most patient and powerful hitters with an OPS of .790 and won 95 games. The Rockies pitching was horrible and that prevented the team from having a good season despite their offenses .766 OPS which ranked them third in the league. The Nationals placed 8th in the league with an OPS of .750.

3. Fielding Metric
There is the saying that defense wins championships and it shows to be somewhat true as the World Series Giants had the 10th highest fielding measuring in at 13. The Braves, who lost in the Wild-Card showdown had a fielding metric of 58.6 and won 94 games on the season. The Red Sox, who only won 69 games, were a surprisingly strong fielding team (34.6).

4. On Base Percentage
Hailed as the wonder stat by the Moneyball generation (then replaced by OPS), OBP does a fine job predicting winners but falls just behind Fielding. The Cardinals and the Yankees were the top two teams and reached 88 and 95 wins respectively. The Athletics, who had 94 wins had an OBP of only .310, bad enough for 24th in the league. The Marineers, who had a league worst .296 OBP, had 75 wins.

5. Batting Average
The first recorded statistic for batters means a lot less than expected with a correlation of .268. The Cardinals had the highest batting average in the league and the Yanks placed second. The Tigers, who were the runner ups in the World Series, had the third highest batting average at .268. The Nationals were not that strong of a hitting team only coming in at #12.

6. Baserunning
Actually has almost no correlation at all coming in at .10. Strikeouts and Stolen Bases actually have a higher correlation rating but there are the opposite of what was expected. Strikeouts actually had a positive correlation while stolen bases had a negative. The Angels had the best Baserunning rating and finished with 89 wins, but on the other end of things the Nationals came in last and led the majors in wins.

7. Strike Outs
This actually shows that the more a team strikes out, the higher their chances of winning are, but ever so slightly. The Athletics led the majors with 1387 strikeouts but still had 94 wins. In second was the Astros who only had 55 wins. The team with the least amount of strikeouts, the Kansas City Royals who had 72 wins.

8. Stolen Bases
Alright, this actually has a stronger correlation than strike outs but it is the opposite correlation of what we want. Teams are better off stealing less because the more you steal, the likelier you are to get thrown out and lose a runner. The Brewers led the majors in with steals and had 83 wins while the Orioles were last with 58 steals but won 93 games.

Jerry Buss diess; Voracek gets hat-trick in rare Flyers win

NBA Recap
It was a goodnight for NBA fans last night with eleven games in action and seven of them ending with a difference of 10 points or less.
It was Rudy Gay's first game against the Grizzlies since being traded to the Raptorsand he put up decent numbers with 13 points and and 9 rebounds. The Grizz had an 11 point lead after the first half and were able to hold on for a 88-82 victory. Zach Randolph scored 17 points and collected 18 rebounds for the Grizzlies.
In a game that was close throughout the Pistons showed determination in a 105-99 win in Charlotte. Brandon Knight led the Pistons with 21 injuries despite only playing 30 minutes because of a leg injury. He is currently day-to-day.
The Pistons blew out the Knicks 125-91 in big part to a 44 point second quarter. The Pistons shot 11-14 from behind the arc led by Paul George who was 4-9 and scored 27 points. Tyson Chandler was the Knicks' best player with 19 points and 11 rebounds.
The Cavs trailed the Hornets by one going into the fourth quarter last night but thanks to Kyrie Irving the Cavs were able to win 105-100. Irving paved the way for the victory scoring 35 points and dishing out 7 assists.
The Hawks were leading the Heat going into the  fourth but the Heat won that period 40-17 on their way to a 103-90 victory. Lebron James scored 24 points and dished out 11 assists while Al Horford led the Heat with 27 points and 9 rebounds.

There was another come from behind victory last night in Milwaukee. The Bucks were up by 8 going into the fourth but the Nets rallied behind Deron Williams and Andray Blatche for the victory. Blatche scored 12 points and had 12 rebounds while Williams scored 23 and dished out 8 assists. Brandon Jennings scored 31 points and had 11 assists in the 97-94 Nets' win.
A very high scoring game in Houston also featuring a comeback. The Rockets were down entering the fourth but James Harden changed things against his former team, the Thunder. He scored 46 points in 122-116 defeat while Russell Westbrook came close to a triple double for the Thunder. He scored 28, had 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. Thabo Sefolosha also scored 28 for the Thunder.
Nikola Pekovic had one hell of a game dropping 27 points and grabbing 18 rebounds against the Sixers for his third straight double-double. Evan Turner scored 17 points for the Sixers in their 94-87 loss.
Shawn Marion and Elton Brand each scored 17 points as the Mavericks depended on a 28-14 fourth quarter to defeat the Orlando Magic 111-96. Dirk grabbed nine rebounds for the Mavs while Aaron Afflalo scored 21 for the Magic.
The Lakers' owner Jerry Buss died today and his team honored with a win over old-time rival the Boston Celtics. Dwight Howard played very well offensively with 24 points while Earl Clark, another Laker big, grabbed 16 rebounds. Paul Pierce scored a game-high 26 points in a 113-9 Lakers' win.
The Warriors ended a 6 game winning streak with a 108-98 defeat of the Suns. Stephen Curry scored 20 points and also added in 11 assists while teammate Klay Thompson scored 28 and grabbed 8 rebounds. Goran Dragic recorded a double-double for the Suns with 20 points and 10 assists.

All NBA
Guard- Kyle Irving- Cleveland Shot 13-22 from the field as well as 7-7 from the free throw line on way to 35 points. Also dished out 7 assists while grabbing 5 boards.

Guard- James Harden- Houston *Player of the Night* Not only did he score 46 points due to 14-19 shooting from the field, including a ridiculous 7-8 from 3pt range, but he also played his greatest game of the year ball handling wise limiting himself to two turnovers. He also grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 6 assists. Almost forgot to mention that he went 11-12 from the line.
Forward- Lebron James- Miami Got the double-double with 24 points and 11 assists but played great defense getting 4 steals. Shot 53.3% overall and 7-8 from the line.
Forward- Kevin Durant- OK City Really didn't have the best game by KG standards only scoring 16 points but he excelled in other areas. He grabbed 12 rebounds and also dished out 11 assists to record a double-double. He shot a poor 4-13 from the field including 0-2 from behind the arc but was a solid 8-9 from the line.
Center- Greg Monroe- Detroit I really have no idea what he did to make himself special this game (my formula deceives me). He scored 19 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and dished out 7 assists. He also blocked three shots.

NHL Recap
Only three games on the Pond but there were some good ones.

The Flyers and the Penguins with Tomas Vokoun letting in 6 for the Penguins and Ilya Bryzgalov letting in 5 for the Flyers (that means the score was 6-5). The Flyers were down 2-0 to start the game due to goals by Matt Niskanen and Evgeni Malkin of the Pens. With 8 minutes left Nicklas Grossman scored his 1st goal of the year thanks to assists by Mike Knuble and Sean Couturier. That goal was followed up exactly one minute later by Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds had other action in the first losing this fight to Tanner Glass.
The second period was a little emptier with Jakub Voracek's first goal of the game being in the only goal, good news was that it put the Flyers up 3-2. Voracek then put the Flyers up 4-2 only 18 seconds into the third on a goal assisted by Coburn and Giroux. It took the Pens 5 minutes to answer back when Tyler Kennedy netted his second goal of the year. In what seemed to be more of a ping-pong match Simmonds scored his second of the game and the Flyers again had a two goal lead. That lead quickly disappeared as the Penguins scored two unanswered goals by James Neal and Brandon Sutter to tie the game up with 2 minutes left. Thankfully Jakub Voracek was a Flyer last night and he completed his hat-trick with only 1:30 left on the clock as the Flyers went on to victory.
My comments on the game are: It was a shame to see Matt Read go down early in the game, he played great in the last game spending plenty of time on the ice with Giroux and Voracek and they were just plain nasty so hopefully he comes back soon. I'm glad to see that Coburn and Schenn were able to go a game without giving up a turnover. Also, Bryzgalov played a terrible game letting up 5 goals on 32 shots, I think Leighton deserves a start considering Boucher really hasn't been a competent backup.
David Jones scored the only goal of the game as the Avalanche defeat the Blues 1-0 in overtime. The Blues outshot their opponents 33-20 but Semyon Varlamov had a stellar game stopping all 33 shots.
Jeff Carter scored his 8th goal of the year as the Kings defeat the Flames 3-1. Trevor Lewis broke a 1-1 tie with 5 minutes left in the first.

ALL NHL

Forward- Jeff Carter- LA Kings Pains me to see him on the list but the next two names make me happy. Carter played an almost perfect game getting a goal and an assist while recording 1 hit, blocking a shot, and forcing one takeaway.
Forward- Jakub Voracek- Philadelphia Philly's hero last night scoring the game winning goal in addition to two others. Only finished the night with a +1 but that is all that matters.
Forward- Wayne Simmonds- Philadelphia Wasn't afraid to drop the gloves and even though he lost he still gets credit. He had a three point net scoring 2 goals and assisting on another.
Defense- Nicklas Grossman- Philadelphia I know this list seems really Philly based but they scored six goals last night. Grossman broke up the Pens' 2-0 start while hitting 3 Pens and blocking two shots.
Defense- Braydon Coburn- Philadelphia Last Flyer on the list because Ilya definitely didn't make it on here. He had one assist but played great defense in a whopping 26 minutes of ice time. He blocked three shots and recorded 2 hits.
Goalie- Semyon Varlamov- Colorado An obvious choice as he had the only shutout of the night and he also made the most saves (33).Wasn't perfect as he did have a turnover.

Introducing Pitcher Efficiency Rating (PER)

I do not claim to be a great sabretician and I understand that this formula might have been created by someone else without me being aware and that is the case then I am sorry. Pitcher Efficiency Rating is a very simple formula and is just innings pitched/total batters faced. As you would expect, the best pitchers lead this category so there are very few players that jump out of nowhere but I think it helps sort out who is the best among the best. If you would combine both relievers and starters for this statistic you would find that the 10 rated pitchers are relievers while the first starter to appear in this rating would be Jered Weaver at #11. Here we take a look at the top 15 starting pitchers in baseball:

Player	Team	Efficiency Rating
Jered Weaver	Angels	0.255737705
David Price	Rays	0.252392344
R.A. Dickey	Mets	0.251605759
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	0.251376147
Matt Cain	Giants	0.249824971
Cliff Lee	Phillies	0.249695493
Justin Verlander	Tigers	0.249058577
Chris Sale	White Sox	0.248704663
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	0.248571429
Cole Hamels	Phillies	0.248096886
Jake Peavy	White Sox	0.246783626
Mike Minor	Braves	0.246016484
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	0.245886443
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	0.245111896
Jason Vargas	Mariners	0.24475761

Jered Weaver comes in as #1 in PER

There are no real surprises in that list other Jason Vargas and Mike Minor, neither of whom appear in the top 40 of ERA. This can be accounted to weak defense although I doubt that is the only reason. Johnny Cueto, who is #7 in ERA, falls just outside the top 15. David Price has the best ERA but Jered Weaver beats him out in the Efficiency Rating. This should be no surprise considering Weaver is considered by many as the best pitcher in baseball. Now let’s take a look at the top 10 relievers in baseball.

Player	Team	Rating
Craig Kimbrel	Braves	0.269604
Fernando Rodney	Rays	0.264855
Casey Janssen	Blue Jays	0.260426
Brad Ziegler	Diamondbacks	0.258594
Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	0.258333
Jake McGee	Rays	0.257767
Aroldis Chapman	Reds	0.257143
Kris Medlen	Braves	0.256398
Jason Motte	Cardinals	0.255839
Sergio Romo	Giants	0.255189

Former Dominican Catcher
and current Dodgers closer Kenley
Jansen is one  of the top relief pitchers

Again, there are no surprises here as Craig Kimbrel, probably the best closer in baseball heads the list. The Rays and Braves seem to have the best the best bullpen as they both have two of the top relief pitchers according to efficiency rating. For full ratings you can check out these links.
Just make sure to zoom.
Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers